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Ethereum is not in a good place technically, and the price action over the last few weeks has made that very clear. After losing several major support levels in quick succession, the overall structure still favors the bears. The bounce from the $1.5K area gave some short-term relief, but the bigger picture has not changed yet. To understand where ETH might go next, you have to look at each layer carefully, because they all tell the same story. THE FLAG THAT FINALLY BROKE Since February, ETH had been forming what looked like a bearish flag on the daily chart. The price kept bouncing along a rising lower trendline, which gave it the appearance of recovery, but the broader trend was still pointing down. When that trendline finally gave out, the move lower was clean and fast, which is exactly what you would expect from a measured breakdown out of a bearish flag. The rejection came first from the long-term descending trendline near $2.4K, and that rejection pushed ETH below its 100-day moving average. That moving average, now sitting around $2.1K, has since flipped to resistance. The 200-day moving average is even further up near $2.4K. Both of these now act as ceilings rather than floors, and that alone tells you how damaged the trend structure is. WHERE PRICE IS STUCK AND WHY IT MATTERS After the breakdown, ETH sliced through the $1.8K area, which had previously been a strong demand zone. Markets remember these levels, and once support breaks, it tends to become resistance on the way back up. On top of that, a bearish Fair Value Gap formed around $1.9K during the sell-off, adding another layer of supply sitting overhead. Any recovery attempt pushing into the $1.8K to $1.9K range is likely to meet sellers looking for an exit. On the 4-hour chart, the decline from $2K to $1.5K was sharp and impulsive. The bounce that followed looks corrective by comparison, which is an important distinction because corrective bounces tend to get sold into. Price is currently trading around $1.68K, still below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at roughly $1.76K. Above that, the 0.618 to 0.786 retracement zone stretches from around $1.8K to $1.9K and overlaps almost exactly with the bearish order block formed during the sell-off. That confluence makes it the single most important resistance area on the chart right now. WHAT THE OPTIONS MARKET IS SAYING The derivatives side of this adds more weight to the cautious outlook. Earlier in the week, the put/call ratio had dipped below 1, meaning call volume was starting to outpace puts, which is normally a sign sentiment is improving. But that did not last. The ratio has since surged toward 1.7, meaning put activity has jumped significantly relative to calls, all while overall volume stays relatively quiet. That combination matters because rising put demand during a low-volume bounce shows that options traders are not buying into the recovery. They are hedging against another leg lower. The spot buyers who stepped in around $1.5K and the derivatives traders buying protection are essentially making opposite bets on what happens next, and that disagreement is itself a reason to stay cautious. THE SETUP AND THE PLAYS The primary trade right now is the short setup at resistance. ETH is grinding toward the $1.8K to $1.9K zone, and that area has three layers of supply stacked on top of each other: the former support that flipped to resistance, the bearish Fair Value Gap, and the bearish order block that aligns with the Fibonacci retracement cluster. A move into that zone followed by rejection candles, slowing momentum, or a renewed spike in put activity would be the signal to enter short. The target on that trade is a retest of $1.5K, with a stop placed on a clean close above $1.9K. That is the invalidation. If ETH closes above $1.9K with conviction, the short thesis breaks and the level needs to be respected as reclaimed support. The secondary play is for bulls who want to position for a trend reversal, but this one requires patience. The RSI has recovered from oversold conditions, which means the worst of the selling pressure has eased, but it has not crossed into bullish territory yet. A real reversal needs ETH to break through the $1.8K to $1.9K cluster and then come back and hold it on a retest. That retest holding is the confirmation, not the initial break. If that happens, the 100-day moving average near $2.1K becomes the first meaningful target, with the 200-day near $2.4K as the longer-term objective. The invalidation for this bull trade is losing $1.5K on a clean daily close, which would confirm the bounce was just a temporary pause inside a larger downtrend. The third scenario, and honestly the one most traders are not prepared for, is a prolonged chop between $1.6K and $1.8K. ETH has a history of grinding through a range and shaking out traders on both sides before picking a real direction. With volume subdued and options positioning defensive, the conditions are there for exactly that kind of environment. In this case, the edges of the range are the only places worth trading. Longs near $1.6K with a tight stop below $1.5K, shorts near $1.8K with a stop above $1.9K, and nothing in between. Forcing a directional trade in the middle of a range like this is how accounts get chipped away quietly. WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THE OUTLOOK TO CHANGE The bear case stays intact as long as ETH holds below $1.8K and the put/call ratio remains elevated. Those two conditions together mean both price structure and market positioning are aligned against recovery. For the outlook to genuinely shift toward bulls, ETH needs to close above $1.9K on strong volume while the put/call ratio starts trending back down. That would signal that the overhead supply has been absorbed and that derivatives traders are no longer hedging aggressively against further downside. Until both of those things happen at the same time, every bounce is a potential selling opportunity rather than the start of something new. The bounce from $1.5K is real, but real bounces inside downtrends happen all the time. What matters is whether it can become something more than that, and right now the evidence says it has not earned that yet. $ETH

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JUST IN: BlackRock Clients BOUGHT $30.26 million in BTC And $8.63 million in ETH on June 11 (Yesterday) Bitcoin: +475.855 BTC (+$30.26M) @ ≈ $63,591 per $BTC Ethereum: +5,144.6851 ETH (+$8.63M) @ ≈ $1,677 per $ETH BlackRock's $IBIT Total Holding: 764,259.45960 BTC ($48B) BlackRock's $ETHA + $ETHB Total Holding: 31,63,321.8268 ETH ($5.20B) BlackRock $ETH Staked: 250,320.53400 ETH ($413M)

Bitcoin ticks up toward $63,000 short-term resistance while traders ignore escalating geopolitical tensions amid continued exchange of fire between the US and Iran. Ethereum tests rebound strength above $1,650 as bulls eye a breakout beyond $1,800, with support from an improving technical structure. XRP holds steady above $1.12, building on rising momentum indicators. Bitcoin ($BTC ) steadies its recovery on Thursday, edging higher toward $63,000 despite incessant capital outflows. Meanwhile, altcoins, including Ethereum ($ETH ) and Ripple ($XRP ), exhibit subtle rebound signs, trading above $1,650 and $1.12, respectively. Investors pull capital as Middle East tensions escalate Demand for risk assets remains significantly subdued as tensions in the Middle East fester, with the United States (US) and Iran exchanging fire. The strikes continued following US President Donald Trump's statement that Iran is taking too long to make a deal. Multiple targets were struck in Iran, with the US military describing them as “self-defense.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) launched strikes against US military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Fox News also reported President Trump’s claim that Iranian officials requested a cessation of the most recent US attack. Risk-off sentiment remains sticky, as reflected in the crypto Fear & Greed Index, which holds at 12 in the Extreme Fear territory on Thursday, up slightly from 10 the day before. Sticky risk-off sentiment will likely limit the crypto market’s broader recovery, keeping investors on the sidelines. Price analysis: Bitcoin regains momentum Bitcoin trades at near $63,000 extending a bearish phase as it holds well beneath a dense band of moving average resistance. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $71,677, the 100-day EMA at 7$4,003 and the 200-day EMA at $79,330 all sit comfortably above spot, suggesting the broader trend remains under downside pressure. The latest SuperTrend reading at $68,416 also aligns overhead, reinforcing the view that any recovery attempts are likely to be capped while price trades below this cluster. Momentum tools are weak but mixed in tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 30 on the daily chart, hinting at oversold conditions. At the same time, the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD histogram holds below the zero line on the same chart, aligning with the prevailing bearish momentum. On the topsid e, initial resistance lies at the SuperTrend barrier near $68,416, where a daily close above would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure. Further up, the 50-day EMA at $71,677 and the 100-day EMA at $74,003 form the next key caps, ahead of a more strategic ceiling at the 200-day EMA around $79,330, which currently defines the upper boundary of the broader corrective structure. If the sell-off resumes, traders will seek to re-engage at key psychological levels $60,000 and $56,000. Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP uphold knee-jerk recovery Ethereum trades at $1,662, extending a bearish phase with price holding well beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $2,012 is the first dynamic resistance, followed by the 100-day EMA at $2,158 and the 200-day EMA at $2,422, together suggesting that any rebound would face layered supply overhead. Momentum conditions remain heavy, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory on the daily chart and the RSI hovers around the 30 mark on the daily chart, hinting at oversold but still pressured conditions rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. On the downside, the neare st psychological support lies at $1,600, followed by $1,500. Holding above these areas could encourage buyers to increase their exposure, anticipating a sustained breakout toward the SuperTrend line resistance at $1,850. On the topside, a daily close back above the 50-day EMA at $2,012 would be the first signal that sellers are losing control, opening the door toward the 100-day EMA at $2,158 and, if overcome, the more significant 200-day EMA at $2,422. XRP, on the other hand, trades at $1.12, extending a bearish near-term bias as price remains decisively below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered from $1.30 to $1.61, while the SuperTrend line at $1.26 also caps the upside. The RSI has recovered from oversold territory but holds near 32 on the daily chart, hinting that selling pressure is merely easing rather than reversing, and the negative MACD histogram reinforces a still-dominant downside momentum backdrop. On the topside, initial resistance appears at the SuperTrend barrier around $1.26, ahead of the 50-day EMA at $1.30, where a daily close above would be needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure. Further up, the 100-day EMA at $1.40 and the 200-day EMA near $1.61 define a broader bearish structure. Unless XRP reclaims at least the lower of these medium and long-term averages, rebounds are likely to be treated as corrective within the prevailing downtrend.

Wait........ wait....... wait...... Everyone, listen carefully. A few days ago I clearly told you that $ETH was recovering, and exactly as expected, Ethereum moved from $1,550 to $1,650. Now, after a healthy pullback, $ETH is showing recovery signs once again. If you missed the first move, don't miss the second one. Buyers are coming back, and Ethereum is recovering slowly and steadily. Our second target is $1,800, while the final target remains $2,000. Stay with me and stay strong. Don't rush. Be patient and let the market do its work. Are you holding $ETH with me?