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Golden Ten Data reported on March 4 that Paolo Pizzoli from ING Group pointed out in a report that the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could impact Italy's economic growth this year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Italy's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Pizzoli stated: "Looking ahead, Italy's economic growth prospects will mainly depend on the development of the US-Iran war and the situation in the Middle East, as well as its spillover effects on the energy market." He noted that Italy's dependence on energy imports is relatively high, and Italian companies are already paying higher energy prices than most of their European peers. The Iran war and its chain reaction in the energy market could lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth in the first half of 2026, making our previous forecast of 0.8% annual growth appear overly optimistic.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 4 that JPMorgan expects, due to the Iran conflict causing private insurance companies to withdraw, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will need to provide insurance coverage totaling more than 300 billions USD for oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, President Trump had pledged to provide such insurance support through the DFC. JPMorgan pointed out: "This commitment will constitute a contingent liability on the Treasury's balance sheet, and the impact on the fiscal deficit will depend on assumptions about expected losses, underwriting terms, and premiums collected." Analysts added that while the plan will increase the deficit, "the increase should be quite limited." It is estimated that each of these vessels will require approximately 2 billions USD in insurance coverage and compensation, mainly to cover oil pollution liability and cargo claims.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 4 that Antonio Ruggiero from Convera pointed out in a report that if the Middle East conflict continues, the pound will face significant risks. He stated that although it is too early to assess whether the conflict will have a substantial negative economic impact, given the UK's fragile political and economic background, its performance is particularly worth watching. He believes that the rise in oil prices caused by the war may drag down economic growth while pushing up inflation. "This will lead to reduced tax revenue and increased government borrowing costs due to higher risk premiums." He noted that the improvement in fiscal space announced in Tuesday's Spring Budget will become meaningless in this context.